Trump claims Iran requested an end to the naval blockade, hinting at diplomatic overtures. The ceasefire by April 30 market sits at 2.9% YES, barely changed from 3% yesterday.
Traders aren’t biting on Trump’s hint of diplomacy. The April 30 ceasefire market shows minor movement with just two days left. A 48-point spike earlier this week didn’t stick. Traders appear to want more than a vague statement before pricing in a resolution.
The US invasion market could drift down slightly if talks materialize, but the lack of detail and continued military activity (like Israel’s attacks on medics) keep expectations low. Traders are likely waiting for concrete evidence of negotiations or an intermediary stepping in.
Daily volume is $66,661 in USDC, and it takes $111,818 to shift the market 5 points. That depth suggests institutional participation, but a single tweet won’t move the odds much. Removing the blockade would change the calculus, but without a confirmed path to talks, this is noise.
A YES share at 2.9¢ pays $1 if resolved. To justify the bet, you’d need to believe a sudden breakthrough is possible with only 48 hours remaining. Watch for formal statements from intermediaries like Qatar or Oman, or shifts in rhetoric from US or Iranian officials.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Related to This Story ▼ Pakistan urges diplomacy at UN amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
