Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has pushed the ceasefire by April 7 market to 70.5% YES, up from 8% a week ago.
The April 7 market spiked 42 points, jumping from 34% to 76% after the news. The April 15 market surged to 80% YES, suggesting traders expect the ceasefire to last beyond two weeks. The term structure shows a 10-point jump from April 7 to April 15, indicating anticipated developments. A share priced at 70.5¢ pays $1 if confirmed by April 7 — a 1.42x return.
The April 30 market at 86.5% YES shows confidence in longer-term peace. Total 24-hour USDC traded is $3,680,901, indicating strong interest. Order book depth varies, with $318 needed to move the April 15 market by 5 points, compared to $52,408 for April 7, showing trader confidence.
This ceasefire marks a shift from past diplomatic failures. Linking it to reopening the Strait of Hormuz is strategic for global oil transit. As a tier-3 source event, traders should await confirmation from higher-tier sources. Watch for intermediary actions from Oman or Qatar and softened rhetoric from both sides.
Monitor statements from CENTCOM and any diplomatic moves from US or Iranian leaders to see if the ceasefire leads to lasting peace.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 80% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 86.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 88.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 93.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 97.5% | — | — | Trade → |
