Iran and Oman plan to charge transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire, with funds earmarked for reconstruction. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 99.6% YES, up from 14% yesterday.
Market reaction
Iran’s plan to impose fees on shipping routes in collaboration with Oman is part of its counterproposal to a US-backed ceasefire. The fee structure would charge $2 million per ship, with proceeds directed toward reconstruction. The odds for an April 15 ceasefire jumped sharply, with a 24-point spike last night pushing the market to near certainty. The April 30 market is priced at 99.5% YES. The narrow spread between the two dates suggests traders expect a resolution in the immediate term, not later in April. Daily volume is at $3.4M in face value and $1.47M in actual USDC.
Why it matters
Iran’s fee proposal is an attempt to institutionalize control over the Strait of Hormuz as part of any ceasefire agreement. This complicates quick diplomatic resolution because it ties reconstruction funding to ongoing Iranian authority over a major shipping lane. Yet the market prices contradict that reading: traders are pricing a near-certain ceasefire by mid-April despite these strategic conditions. A YES share for April 15 bought at 99.6¢ pays $1, leaving minimal upside unless the deal collapses.
What to watch
Traders should monitor official announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, and any shifts in rhetoric from US and Iranian officials. Changes on either front could move these markets quickly from their current near-certainty levels.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
