Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has ended his opposition to Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve chair nomination, removing a procedural barrier in the Senate. Odds for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 on Polymarket now sit at 93.5% YES, up from 29% a day ago.
The May 15 market surged on Tillis’s reversal. Warsh’s confirmation by May 1 remains unlikely at 1.8% YES, while the June 30 market is at 96.4% YES. The gap between the May 1 and May 15 contracts suggests traders expect a confirmation vote in that two-week window now that Tillis is no longer blocking the process.
Volume across these markets hit $19,708 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The May 15 contract moved 20 points, the largest swing of the three. The order book shows it takes $1,590 to move this market 5 points, indicating solid liquidity.
For traders, buying YES at 94¢ offers a 1.06x return with limited downside given Tillis’s support and the DOJ’s resolution of the Powell investigation, both of which have removed friction from the confirmation process.
The Senate Banking Committee vote is scheduled for Wednesday. Senate procedural delays or any new Republican defections would be the main risks. Trump’s public statements on the nomination are also worth tracking as a signal of White House engagement.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 94% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 96.4% | — | — | Trade → |