Oil markets are on edge as the Strait of Hormuz stays shut due to Iran war tensions. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 1.1% YES.
The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is keeping oil prices elevated. The market for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is at 3.6% YES, up from 3% yesterday. With seven days left until resolution, these odds reflect traders pricing in sustained supply disruptions. The expectation for Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by the end of April likely falls as the blockade remains in effect.
The WTI $160 market shows minimal movement, with daily trading volume at $487 in actual USDC. It takes $2,571 to move the price 5 percentage points, indicating moderate liquidity that can absorb small trades but is vulnerable to large orders. The largest price jump was 0.1 percentage point, consistent with cautious trading during an active conflict.
The sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed up to 11 million barrels per day from global supply, flipping the market from an expected surplus to a deficit. This has added a war premium of $25-$30 to Brent crude prices. Buying YES at 1.1¢ offers a 90.9x return if WTI reaches $160, but that would require a major escalation beyond the current blockade, such as a complete halt in global oil production or destruction of Saudi export infrastructure.
Traders should watch for announcements from the Trump administration on military actions or ceasefire extensions, and any OPEC+ moves to adjust production levels. Changes in the operational status of the Strait of Hormuz or strategic petroleum reserve releases could move these markets sharply.
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What Price Will Wti Hit In April 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.1% | +0.1¢ | $54K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.7% | 0.0¢ | $69K | Trade → |
