Banks, brokers, and stablecoin issuers can freeze assets, while Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum remain unfrozen. The USDC depeg by December 31 market sits at 3% YES.
USDC and USDT are both subject to issuer-level freezing, which creates a potential path to depegging during geopolitical disruption. The USDC depeg by December 31 market is at 3% YES. The context here is state-sponsored cyber operations from North Korea, China, and Russia targeting crypto infrastructure, which could test the freeze mechanisms these stablecoins rely on.
Odds haven’t moved. The market has a face value of $0, and there’s no active trading volume. Traders appear to be waiting for concrete developments before taking positions. The term structure is flat, with no changes in odds across resolution dates.
Native L1 assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana resist protocol-level freezes, which gives them a structural advantage over stablecoins in scenarios involving state-level asset seizure or infrastructure attacks. But the absence of trading activity shows traders aren’t treating this as a meaningful shift in stablecoin depegging risk.
Watch for statements from Jeremy Allaire (Circle) and Paolo Ardoino (Tether). Any announcements about stablecoin reserves or regulatory changes could move odds.
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Stablecoins Depeg Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
