The S&P 500 hit another all-time high, adding $7.6 trillion in market cap. The Polymarket contract for the S&P 500 opening higher on April 24 is at 99.9% YES, up from 65% yesterday.
The April 24 market saw a 23-point move at 6:38 PM, jumping from 32% to 55% in moments. With the index breaching 7,000, the contract has since converged near certainty.
The rally has had a muted effect on crypto-related contracts. The June 30 market for Bitcoin’s all-time high sits at 3.1% YES. Longer-dated Bitcoin contracts show similarly low conviction: September 30 at 11.5% and December 31 at 18.5%.
The S&P 500 climb has been driven by tech and semiconductor stocks. The indefinite U.S. ceasefire with Iran has also reassured markets, with resumed oil flows and de-escalation signals. A YES share at 99¢ offers almost no upside, but the near-total consensus on an upward open is itself the signal.
Watch for Q1 earnings reports from major tech firms and any geopolitical shifts that could disrupt oil flows. Jerome Powell’s upcoming comments and Federal Reserve signals on rate policy are the other main variables.
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Spx Opens Up Or Down On April 24 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
