Al Hadath reports that Pakistan is engaging with Iranian diplomat Abbas Araghchi to address the Hormuz crisis. The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31 sits at 62% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
Pakistan’s reported involvement sends mixed signals. The diplomatic outreach suggests more channels are opening, but the source’s credibility limits the market impact. The blockade-lifting market dropped 10 points from last week, and a 5-point spike yesterday points to volatile trader sentiment. Market link
The odds for US-Iran diplomatic meetings by May 31 are at 62% YES, also down 10% from last week. Traders appear to be discounting the Al Hadath report and weighing the source’s reliability against the possibility of actual diplomatic progress. Market link
Trade volume is $95,253 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The order book requires roughly $8,975 to move prices 5 points, which indicates a relatively stable market absent a large order. The biggest price move was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM yesterday, likely triggered by a single significant buy.
Buying YES at 62¢ pays 1.61x if a breakthrough happens. That bet requires confidence that Pakistan’s mediation actually moves the needle on US-Iran talks.
Watch for official statements from Islamabad or Trump’s social media. Confirmation of direct talks or policy shifts would move these odds fast.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |