Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election concluded with Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria party winning decisively, and the market for Radev becoming the next Prime Minister now sits at 98.4% YES.
The Radev PM market jumped from 92% a week ago to 98.4% YES following the election results. The April 19 election saw Progressive Bulgaria secure over 120 of 240 National Assembly seats, breaking GERB’s hold and pushing down odds for the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) finishing second.
The DPS second-place market has turned bearish. Progressive Bulgaria’s seat count and GERB’s continued presence both crowd out DPS prospects, and odds for DPS finishing second have dropped sharply. Low volume in that market suggests traders have shifted attention to Radev’s path to the premiership.
The Radev PM market has $37,086 in daily USDC volume, and it takes $51,583 to move the odds by 5 points, which indicates solid market depth. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 6:29 PM, consistent with steady trader interest rather than sudden volatility.
Radev holds pro-Russian and Eurosceptic positions, so his premiership could shift Bulgaria’s orientation within NATO and the EU. At 98¢ for a YES share, the market prices near-certainty. Upside for new buyers is thin unless an unexpected political disruption intervenes.
Watch for the official swearing-in ceremony and any coalition agreements Radev negotiates. Either could move current market odds.
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