Qatar’s emir and President Trump discussed a Washington-Tehran ceasefire after Trump extended the U.S.-Iran truce indefinitely. The Polymarket contract on crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 is at 1.6% YES, down from 2% a day ago.
Market reaction
The indefinite truce extension reduces the likelihood of immediate conflict, pulling down oil price forecasts. The WTI Crude Oil market now shows a 0.6% YES probability of hitting $160 in April, down from 1% yesterday. With six days left on the April 30 contract, traders appear convinced the extension will keep short-term oil supply concerns in check.
Why it matters
Liquidity in these markets is thin. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, showing how easily a few trades can shift the odds. The crude oil all-time high market trades at $2,513 in actual USDC daily. It takes just $695 to move the odds 5 points, meaning even small trades can cause noticeable swings.
At 1.6¢, a YES share pays $1 if crude hits a new high by April 30. That’s a speculative bet that would require a surprise escalation or supply disruption to pay off. The current odds reflect a market pricing in stability given the truce extension.
What to watch
Any signs of resumed U.S.-Iran talks or OPEC+ production announcements could shift odds quickly. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz or an unexpected breakdown in negotiations would be the most direct catalysts for repricing.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
