The Justice Department has dropped its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, removing the main obstacle to Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair. The market for Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 sits at 78.5% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The DOJ decision opens the path for the Senate to move forward with Warsh’s confirmation. The May 15 contract climbed 49.5 percentage points. The May 1 market remains at 1.8% YES given the tight timeline. The June 30 contract trades at 94.2% YES.
Why it matters
The gap between the May 1 and May 15 contracts indicates traders expect a confirmation vote within the next two weeks. Senator Thom Tillis had vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation concluded. With the DOJ probe dropped, that hold loses its stated rationale and Tillis’s position could shift quickly.
What to watch
Volume hit $19,708 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with moderate liquidity. The May 15 market’s depth at $1,590 to move the price 5 points suggests concentrated positioning. The largest single price movement was a 20-point spike after the DOJ announcement, pointing to strong conviction among traders.
With the investigation gone, Warsh’s confirmation path to the May 15 resolution date is substantially clearer. At 78¢, a YES share pays $1 if Warsh is confirmed by then, a 1.27x return. The next catalysts are any statement from Senator Tillis and the Senate Banking Committee scheduling a confirmation hearing.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 78.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 94.7% | — | — | Trade → |
