The Pentagon says mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz could take six months after hostilities end. The probability of 80 ships transiting the strait by April 30 is at 6% YES, down from 17% a day ago.
Market reaction
The market dropped 11 points in 24 hours as traders priced in prolonged disruption. With seven days remaining, the odds of 80 ships transiting sit at 6%, showing deep skepticism about a rapid resolution. The WTI Crude Oil market prices a $160 hit at 0.8% YES, a figure consistent with extended Hormuz disruption supporting higher oil prices without traders betting on extreme spikes.
Why it matters
The Pentagon’s six-month timeline means energy supply disruptions through the strait would outlast any near-term ceasefire. Roughly 20% of global oil passes through Hormuz, so even partial blockage has direct consequences for crude pricing and tanker routing.
What to watch
The face value of trades in the Strait of Hormuz market is $18,346 per day, but actual USDC trading volume is just $2,238. It takes only $946 to move the market five points, which means the contract is vulnerable to single large orders. The biggest move in the last 24 hours was a 2-point spike. Watch for statements from U.S. Central Command or diplomatic developments involving Iran. Any sign of accelerated mine-clearing or de-escalation could move this thin market fast. A YES share at 6¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 16.7x return, but that requires a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or rapid operational success in the next week.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
