Pakistan remains optimistic about US-Iran negotiations despite Iran seizing two cargo ships. The market for a diplomatic meeting by May 31 sits at 74.5% YES, down from 82% yesterday.
Market reaction
Pakistan’s optimism hasn’t moved the odds on the US-Iran ceasefire, which hold at 100% YES for the April 21 resolution date. Traders see the ceasefire holding for now, even as ship seizures add friction. The May 31 market for lifting the US blockade of Hormuz also shows 74.5% YES.
Why it matters
Trading volume for the diplomatic meeting market reached $27,582 in USDC over the past day, with an order book depth of $8,549 to move 5 points. The largest price move was a 3-point drop at 5:36 AM, suggesting traders are reacting cautiously to mixed signals from the region.
What to watch
A YES share on the diplomatic meeting by May 31 pays $1 if the talks occur, a 1.34x return at 74.5¢. The bet depends on whether Pakistan’s mediation produces results while ship seizures continue.
Watch for Pakistani diplomatic moves and any announcements from the State Department or CENTCOM. These will be the primary signals for the next market shift.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 74% | — | — | Trade → |
