Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is negotiating a ceasefire with Iran, with US Vice President JD Vance as the intermediary. The market for a “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” is at 21.5% YES, up from 12% a day ago.
The April 15 market jumped 9.5 points in a day, suggesting traders view the talks as a credible step towards de-escalation. The April 30 market also rose to 33.5% YES, indicating optimism for a resolution. The largest expectation increase is between April 30 and May 31, with a 16-point rise, reflecting anticipation of developments in May.
Trading volume is strong, with $994K in USDC traded over 24 hours. The April 15 market is responsive, needing $8,964 to move 5 points. A 4-point spike at 2:58 PM was likely driven by a large order.
Vice President Vance and Prime Minister Sharif’s involvement adds weight to the efforts, but skepticism remains. Iran’s past rejections temper optimism. At 22¢, a YES share for April 15 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs, a 4.5x return. Traders need confidence in a successful negotiation within 8 days.
Watch for formal announcements from Oman or Qatar, or changes in Iranian rhetoric, which could further influence the market.
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