President Trump confirmed the US naval blockade on Iran will persist until a deal is reached, claiming it’s economically devastating the country. Market odds for lifting the blockade by May 31 dropped to 74% YES, down from 82% yesterday.
The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market moved 8 points in 24 hours, with traders growing more skeptical about a near-term resolution. With 38 days until the contract expires, the shift followed directly from Trump’s statement.
The Strait of Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal market is also affected, though current odds data is missing. A prolonged blockade creates uncertainty around traffic normalization by the end of June, and traders are likely pricing continued disruption into their positions.
Trading volume in the blockade market hit $27,582, with $8,549 in order book depth to move the price 5 points — a moderately thick market where real capital is needed to shift prices. The largest move was a 3-point drop at 5:36 AM, a swift reaction to Trump’s remarks.
The blockade’s continuation points to no imminent breakthrough in US-Iran relations. Traders betting on the blockade lifting by May 31 face a cost of 26¢ per YES share for a 3.84x return. That bet requires confidence in rapid diplomatic progress over the next five weeks.
Watch for talks between US and Iranian officials. Any signs of a deal or breakdown could move these odds sharply. Specifically, look for statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi or changes in US naval deployment.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 11.2% | — | — | Trade → |
