French President Emmanuel Macron has attributed a deadly attack on a French UN peacekeeper in Lebanon to Hezbollah. The market on a sustained ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah by June 30 is now at 97% YES, up from 67% a week ago.
The April 30 ceasefire market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago. That 49-point swing in seven days shows traders are pricing in a prolonged ceasefire even as Macron publicly blames Hezbollah for the attack. The June 30 market’s parallel move to 97% suggests traders expect the ceasefire to hold through at least mid-year.
Trading volume on the April 30 market is at $1,041,878 in USDC. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 13-point spike. Order book depth shows it takes $50,093 to move the price by 5 points, which points to institutional-level liquidity.
Macron blaming Hezbollah directly, while a ceasefire is technically in place, complicates the diplomatic picture. The surge in ceasefire odds could be a short-lived reaction to the news cycle rather than a durable reassessment. At 6¢, a NO share pays $1 if the ceasefire fails by April 30, a 16.67x return. That bet requires believing that rising tensions will actually break the ceasefire within weeks.
Watch for any statements from Hezbollah or the Lebanese government, and any actions by UNIFIL or Israel’s military. These could move the ceasefire markets quickly.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
