Iran’s National Security Council declared an uncompromising stance on negotiations, and the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sit at 17% YES.
The ceasefire market for April 21 is flat at 8% YES, showing low confidence in an imminent agreement. The April 22 market is at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 market has jumped to 44.5% YES, driven by speculation about a mid-term diplomatic breakthrough.
Daily face value across ceasefire markets is $2.5M, with $699K in actual USDC traded. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop in the April 30 market, a sign of skepticism about near-term resolutions. Order book depth varies: the April 22 market requires $16,401 to move 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.
Iran’s firm rhetoric and recent escalations, including Israeli strikes, reduce the probability of a ceasefire. The term structure suggests traders are betting on a potential diplomatic shift beyond April, with higher odds extending into May and June. A YES share for the April 21 ceasefire pays $1 at 17¢, a 12.5x return. Recent developments make this a long shot without significant diplomatic movement.
Watch for statements from Trump, CENTCOM, or intermediary nations like Oman. Any indication of resumed talks or softened rhetoric could shift these markets fast.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 17% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 67.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 48% | — | — | Trade → |
