Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri confirmed ongoing negotiations with Israel to avert a prolonged conflict. The Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026 market sits at 100% YES.
The likelihood of Trump endorsing an Israeli ceasefire by April 30 is also at 100% YES. The extension of a US-brokered ceasefire and high-level talks between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington account for both markets pricing in certainty.
The April 30 diplomatic meeting market reached 100% after confirmed talks between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington. The Trump ceasefire endorsement market matches at 100% YES.
Neither market shows recent trading activity. The Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting market has no new trades, and the Trump endorsement market is the same. When a market hits 100% and stays there with zero volume, traders have collectively decided the outcome is settled.
Mitri’s confirmation points to Lebanon shifting from military engagement toward diplomatic resolution. A YES share at 100¢ is a closed book: no one is betting against it, and there’s no profit left on the table.
Watch for official announcements from the US State Department or statements from Hezbollah that could disrupt the current consensus. Either could be the first real test of these markets’ assumptions.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 38% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 27% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
