US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing is focused on stability, with the market for Trump visiting China by May 31 at 70.5% YES, down from 76% a day ago.
Market reaction
The May 31 market has pulled back but holds above 70% after the summit confirmation. The June 30 market sits at 81.5% YES, showing stronger confidence for a visit by that date. The April 30 market is at 0.5% YES, effectively pricing out an April trip.
Why it matters
Liquidity in the May 31 market is $45,817 in daily USDC volume. The order book requires $5,541 to move the price 5 points, consistent with institutional-sized participation. The largest recent move was a 3-point spike, which shows the market reacts quickly to new information on this question.
The summit’s stated focus on stabilization suggests traders are pricing in modest outcomes rather than major policy shifts. Recent friction, including US arms sales to Taiwan, has weighed on odds, but the explicit stability framing from Bessent may limit further downside.
What to watch
Official announcements on travel itineraries or a detailed summit agenda would be the next catalysts. A firm confirmation from either Trump or Xi on the summit’s scope and timing could move the May 31 market sharply in either direction.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 5.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 72% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 81.5% | — | — | Trade → |
