Judges have refused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to delay his testimony in his ongoing corruption trial. The odds for Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 sit at 5.5% YES.
With the trial now set to continue without further delay, markets are pricing in the possibility of a quicker resolution. The April 30 market remains at 0.2% YES, as the timeline is simply too tight. The May 31 and June 30 markets show mild interest at 3.4% and 5.5% YES, respectively. The 3-point rise from April to May suggests traders see a small but growing chance of political fallout as the trial progresses.
This market trades lightly, with volume at $21,353 in USDC for the June 30 contract. A move of 5 percentage points requires $16,447, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 44-point spike at 11:40 AM, showing sensitivity to significant trades.
The refusal to delay matters because it signals the judiciary’s determination to proceed, despite Netanyahu’s attempts to cite security issues for postponements. At 5.5% YES, a bet on Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 pays $1 per share, an 18x return. The market is skeptical about a quick outcome, but odds could shift fast if trial developments accelerate.
Watch for additional court rulings or testimony that damages Netanyahu’s position. A shift in coalition support could also move these odds quickly. Statements from Israeli political figures responding to the trial’s progress are worth tracking.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 26, 2026 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 3.4% | — | — | Trade → |
