Israel is seeking US consent to restart military operations against Iran, pushing the permanent peace deal by April 30 market to just 3.1% YES on Polymarket.
Market reaction
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 market barely moved, ticking up from 3% yesterday. The June 30 contract prices a deal at 11.5% YES, suggesting traders see more room for a longer-term resolution. The Iran regime fall market for April 30 is effectively dead at 0.5% YES, while May 31 sits at 3.6% YES.
The peace deal market saw a 2-point spike to 5% at 4:10 PM, meaning some traders are still betting on a last-minute agreement. The Iranian regime fall by May 31 market is slightly more liquid, with volume at $37,360 in actual USDC daily, yet it would still take $7,057 to shift the odds by 5 points, showing resistance to speculative moves.
Why it matters
Israel’s request signals diverging US-Israeli objectives and makes a quick return to negotiations unlikely. For traders betting on a peace deal, the 32.3x return on a YES share is tempting but carries high risk. A permanent peace deal by April 30 would require a rapid diplomatic breakthrough, which looks improbable without significant US intervention.
What to watch
Official statements from the US State Department or Israeli Defense Forces could shift these markets. Any confirmation of resumed operations or a change in US diplomatic posture would directly affect pricing on both the peace deal and regime fall contracts.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |
