Iranian MP Ebrahim Azizi said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Pakistan is strictly for bilateral discussions and has nothing to do with US-Iran nuclear negotiations. The market on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 6% YES, unchanged over 24 hours but down from 50% a week ago.
Azizi’s statement reinforces Iran’s position on nuclear issues, which Tehran has called a “red line.” The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market holds at 6% YES with 6 days to resolution. The drop from 50% last week reflects growing skepticism about any imminent agreement on uranium enrichment cessation.
The US-Iran ceasefire market, where a ceasefire end by April 21 trades at 100% YES, sees less direct impact. Azizi’s emphasis on bilateral talks with Pakistan implies no immediate resolution to broader tensions between the US and Iran.
The uranium enrichment market has $4,778 in actual USDC volume. It takes $2,529 to move the price 5 percentage points, showing some resistance to quick shifts. No major price movement occurred in the last 24 hours, with the largest recent move being a 2-point spike.
Iran’s position on its nuclear program remains fixed, which makes a rapid diplomatic breakthrough unlikely within the April 30 deadline. A YES bet at 6¢ pays 16.67x if successful, but that requires an unexpected diplomatic shift within days.
Watch for potential mediation developments in Islamabad or any change in rhetoric from Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei or US envoys, which could move market pricing.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.1% | — | — | Trade → |
