A Hudson Institute report says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to pose an asymmetric naval threat in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 is at 17.8% YES, down from 19% yesterday.
The IRGC’s reliance on swarm tactics and drones keeps traders watching for further ship disruptions in the Gulf. The April 30 market shows steady pricing as the deadline approaches, with a noticeable 10-point jump at 11:40 AM recently. The odds for the UK sending warships through the Strait by April 30 remain flat at 1.8% YES, which points to little expectation of direct military engagement.
The market trades about $6,276 in face value daily, though actual USDC volume is much lower at $1,280. A mere $101 can shift the market by 5 points, meaning even small trades could cause sharp moves. The largest 10-point spike suggests some traders are betting on increased IRGC actions.
The Hudson Institute report focuses on the IRGC’s asymmetric capabilities despite Iran’s conventional navy losses. Traders betting on IRGC targeting two or more ships by April 30 can buy YES shares at 17.8¢, with a potential 5.62x return. The main risk variable is whether the IRGC escalates from harassment to more aggressive actions.
Watch for new seizures or attacks by the IRGC that could shift odds. U.S. Navy reports on Iranian naval movements or increased drone activity would be the most likely catalysts. With only six days until resolution, any single incident could move this thin market significantly.
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How Many Ships Will Iran Successfully Target April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.3% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
