Iran’s Farsi version of its ceasefire proposal includes acceptance of uranium enrichment, a detail absent from the English version. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is at 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago.
The April 15 ceasefire market saw odds jump from 67% to 90% in a single 24-point spike. The April 30 market now sits at 99.5% YES, up from 36% a week ago. Both markets are pricing in resolution before the earlier deadline.
Daily USDC volume on the April 15 contract is $1.68M, with order book depth requiring $246,725 to move the price 5 points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM.
The Farsi proposal’s inclusion of uranium enrichment language suggests a softer Iranian position that could break the negotiating deadlock. At 99.6% YES, a ceasefire by April 15 is priced as near-certain, but a YES share costs just 40¢, making the payout unattractive unless new risks emerge. Traders expecting a swift resolution should watch for announcements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar.
Statements from Trump and Rubio matter here, as do any shifts in CENTCOM’s operational posture. A confirmed back-channel meeting or softened rhetoric from either side would reinforce the current pricing.
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |