The UN chief has welcomed a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 99.6% YES, up from 14% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire announcement has essentially locked in odds across all related markets. April 15 is priced at 99.6%, April 30 at 99.5%, and further dates hold at similar levels. The largest move was a 24-point spike in the April 15 market at 10:34 PM, jumping from 67% to 90%.
Combined 24-hour USDC volume across these markets is $4,541,408. It takes $246,725 to move the April 15 market price 5 points, indicating deep liquidity.
Why it matters
The ceasefire has also hit the US forces entering Iran market, where the April 30 contract is at 99.8% YES, with traders pricing in reduced likelihood of imminent ground operations. A two-week ceasefire is not a lasting peace agreement. At 99.6¢, a YES share offers minimal upside, and the market is entirely priced around short-term de-escalation rather than any durable resolution.
What to watch
Pakistan-mediated talks are set to begin Friday. Any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or Iran’s Supreme National Security Council could move markets, particularly if negotiations stall or expand beyond the initial two-week window. A move from ceasefire to formal negotiations would be a different kind of signal entirely.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |