Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi met with Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said to discuss ending the Iran-U.S. conflict and securing the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market sits at 2.9% YES, down from 7% yesterday.
The US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30 market has 6 days left and odds have dropped sharply this week, even as Araqchi held talks in Oman. Traders aren’t pricing in concrete progress. The Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement market is at 54.5% YES, pricing in a roughly coin-flip chance of de-escalation by end of May.
The Israeli-Iranian peace deal markets show little confidence. The April 30 market is at 1.2% YES, while the June 30 market trades at 9.5%. The 8-point gap between April and June contracts suggests traders see a small window for diplomatic movement after April passes.
The nuclear deal market trades $7,699 in actual USDC daily, with $1,550 required to move the price 5 points. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike, a sign of a thin market vulnerable to large orders. The Hormuz blockade market is more liquid at $95,253 in actual USDC daily, but still sensitive to significant trades.
Araqchi’s meeting in Oman is a diplomatic gesture, not a breakthrough event. The tier-3 source and lack of direct action mean traders should treat this as a signal of intent, not a shift in trajectory. Buying YES on the nuclear deal at 3¢ would pay $1 if it resolves, a 33.3x return. That requires believing in a full diplomatic resolution within 6 days.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Iranian state media confirming a deal. Trump’s social media statements or official releases from Omani mediators could move odds quickly.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
