MarineTraffic reports elevated risks for 702 vessels in the Persian Gulf due to Iranian threats, US interdiction, and mine hazards. The market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 sits at 26% YES, up from 19% 24 hours ago.
Traders reacted to the heightened threats with a sharp 10-point spike at 11:40 AM, jumping from 30% to 40% before settling back. That move was driven by $1,259 in USDC traded. The odds of Iran targeting two or more ships by end of April were at just 4% a week ago.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic market points in the opposite direction: odds of returning to normal by May 15 dropped to 18% YES, down from 20% yesterday, as US interdiction efforts continue. Market depth shows $5,593 is needed to move the odds 5 points, meaning there is significant resistance to rapid price changes.
With the US naval blockade still in effect, the chances of traffic normalization by end of April are slim. The market for that scenario has seen no recent activity, which matches the pessimism among traders. At 26¢, a YES share pays $1 if Iran targets two or more ships, a 3.85x return.
Watch for further IRGC naval activities and any announcements from US Central Command. Both will directly affect whether these odds continue climbing.
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How Many Ships Will Iran Successfully Target April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 26.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
