President Trump has ordered the US Navy to target mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Polymarket contract on Trump announcing the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31, 2026, has dropped to 63%, down from 72% twenty-four hours ago. Military action against Iran ending by April 1, 2026, is unlikely.
The Hormuz blockade market has $95,253 in actual USDC traded. It would take $8,975 to move the odds by 5 points, which indicates reasonable liquidity. The largest recent move was a 5-point spike after the Navy directive became public.
The Iran diplomatic meetings market holds at 63%. The $8,995 needed to shift this market’s odds by 5 points suggests limited room for quick reversals without substantial news.
The mine-clearing order is a setback for diplomacy. The source tier is 3, so this is not a definitive turn but consistent with current tensions. At 63¢, a YES share on the Hormuz blockade market pays $1 if the blockade is lifted by the end of May, a 1.6x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a diplomatic breakthrough within 37 days.
Watch for announcements from CENTCOM or Trump’s social media channels. Changes in naval operations or statements on the blockade will move these markets.
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