The US blockade of Iran and renewed talks in Pakistan are moving several Polymarket contracts. The market on whether Trump will announce the Hormuz blockade has been lifted by May 31, 2026 is at 64.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday.
## Market reaction
The Hormuz blockade market has fallen from 90% a week ago to 64.5% now, with traders pricing in a longer blockade given the US military posture. The $8,975 needed to move this market five points suggests a relatively firm order book. Total volume on the Hormuz market is $95,253 in USDC.
The Iran diplomatic meetings market has moved in the opposite direction, with odds at 11% YES as traders price in the Islamabad Talks continuing.
## Why it matters
The permanent peace deal markets show a clear term structure. Odds for a deal by April 30 are at 10.5% YES, while May 31 is at 35.5%. The gap between these two dates implies traders expect a possible catalyst after April that could improve conditions for a deal.
The largest single move in the Hormuz market was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, jumping from 57% to 62%, showing how fast prices react to news of talks or military actions. With $8,975 in order book depth, individual large orders can still move the price meaningfully.
## What to watch
A YES share on the April 30 peace deal trades at roughly 11¢, offering a potential 9.1x return. Given the ongoing military escalation, this is a speculative position unless the Islamabad Talks produce concrete progress.
Watch for announcements from the Islamabad Talks and any changes in US naval activity. Shifts in either military posture or diplomatic progress could move these markets quickly.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31, 2026 | 35.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 53.5% | — | — | Trade → |
