The U.S.-Iran ceasefire, agreed on April 8, 2026, expires April 22 with no extension deal in sight. Iran has re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential re-escalation. Ceasefire by April 30 is now at 37.5% YES, down from 59% a day ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire-by-April-30 market dropped sharply after talks in Islamabad failed. The Strait of Hormuz re-closure and mutual ceasefire violations have traders wary. 24-hour volume is $80,435 in actual USDC, with a recent 4-point drop. Explore the market.
The WTI Crude Oil market for prices reaching $160 in April holds steady at 1.4% YES despite the Hormuz closure. A 25-point spike occurred previously, but trading is thin at just $704 in daily USDC volume. The market suggests traders remain skeptical about sustained supply disruptions at that price level.
Why it matters
Diplomatic prospects look bleak. The probability of a meeting between Trump and Iranian officials by April 30 is down to 19.1% YES. The market’s order book depth is just $276 to move 5 points, meaning even minor news could swing prices fast. View this market.
The ceasefire expiring without a deal sharply reduces the chance of de-escalation by month’s end. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, military escalation is a real possibility. Traders buying YES on ceasefire resolution by April 30 at 37.5¢ would see a 2.67x return, but the odds reflect deep skepticism.
What to watch
Any announcements from the Sultan of Oman or Qatar could indicate renewed mediation. CENTCOM statements matter too: a shift in U.S. military posture could move these markets quickly given the thin order books.
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Trump Announces End Of Military Operations Against Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 19.1% | — | — | Trade → |