Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz only after the war concludes and with guarantees against resumption. The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 30 is at 2.9% YES, down from 18% a week ago.
US officials rejected Iran’s conditions, and traders have responded accordingly. The odds for Trump announcing an end to military operations by April 30 sit at 2.9% YES, with only two days left on the clock. The US invasion of Iran market remains dormant, though Iran’s hardline stance could push it slightly upward.
The ceasefire market has $66,661 in USDC traded, and it would take $111,818 to move the odds by 5 percentage points. The largest movement was a 48-point spike driven by speculative trading rather than any substantive change on the ground.
Iran’s proposal is a non-starter for US officials, and no diplomatic breakthroughs are visible. At 2.9¢ per YES share, a correct bet on an April 30 ceasefire would pay 34.5x. That payout prices in how unlikely last-minute diplomacy is at this point.
Watch for statements from US intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, any Pentagon operational changes, and new rhetoric from Trump. Any of these could shift the ceasefire timeline market.
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