Iran exported 10.7 million barrels of crude oil this week, routing around a US naval blockade. The market on crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 3% a day ago.
Market reaction
Traders read Iran’s export resilience as evidence the blockade is less effective than expected. The crude oil all-time high market dropped to 1%, with a 2-point decline over the past 24 hours driven by Iran maintaining near-normal export volumes. Seven days remain before resolution, and traders are pricing in almost no chance of a supply-driven price spike.
Why it matters
This market is extremely thin. Actual USDC traded was just $2,006 against a face value of $72,279. It takes only $1,020 to move the price 5 percentage points. The largest move in the last 24 hours was the 2-point drop following news of Iran’s export figures, which shows how reactive this market is to supply data despite low liquidity.
Iran’s ability to keep exporting at these levels means the blockade has not produced the supply shock some anticipated. The probability of crude hitting an all-time high before April ends is correspondingly low. A YES share at 1¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 100x return, but that bet requires believing a major escalation is days away.
What to watch
OPEC+ production adjustment announcements or any US Navy moves to tighten enforcement around Iranian shipping routes. Either could shift odds quickly given how thin the order book is.
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Crude Oil All Time High April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.2% | — | — | Trade → |
