Iran executed two men accused of spying for Mossad and plotting attacks. The market for Israeli military action against Iran by April 21 is at 4.7% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
The April 21 sub-market jumped 10 points from 4% to 14% in the past 24 hours, likely driven by concerns over potential Israeli retaliation. The market resolves in three days, so traders are pricing in near-term developments.
Trading activity is modest, with $5,742 in USDC traded over the past day. It only takes $709 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, which means larger orders can easily push the price around. The biggest single move was a 7-point spike at 11:31 AM.
Executions tied to espionage and terrorism allegations have historically preceded diplomatic or military escalations between Iran and Israel. At 4.7¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, for a potential 7.14x return. That bet requires conviction that Israeli military action is imminent.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu or IDF movements in the coming days. Any Israeli confirmation of strikes or military preparations would likely push odds higher.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 4.6% | — | — | Trade → |