Kevin Warsh’s Senate Banking Committee hearing, scheduled for April 21, is putting Fed rate predictions in focus. Markets for rate stability after the July 2026 meeting show 78.5% YES, down from 84% a week ago.
Market reaction
Warsh’s dovish shift, which fits with Trump’s preference for lower rates, is moving markets. The Fed Decisions from March to June contract could see increased odds for a rate cut depending on how the hearing goes. The July 2026 market has a daily face value of $945 and actual USDC traded at $742. It takes $4,219 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest recent move was a 5.5% decrease in the odds, tied to uncertainty around Warsh’s confirmation and policy direction.
Why it matters
Warsh’s confirmation would change the composition of the Fed and could shift rate policy. At 22¢, a YES share in the Fed rate predictions for end-2026 pays $1 if rates end up lower. That bet depends on Warsh getting confirmed and the Fed actually cutting. The April 21 hearing is the first real test: any sign of resistance from committee members or unexpected hawkish statements from Warsh himself would move expectations.
What to watch
Watch for statements from the Senate Banking Committee after the hearing, and any reactions from Jerome Powell or Stephen Miran. Changes in their commentary or unexpected developments during the hearing could shift the odds significantly.
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