Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani said guarantees against further US-Israeli attacks are necessary before Iran can ensure security in the Gulf. The April 30 peace deal market now sits at 1% YES, down from 3% yesterday.
The demand for security assurances before any Gulf cooperation signals that both sides are moving further from negotiation, not closer. The April 30 contract dropped from 10% to 1% over the past week. The June 30 market fell to 8.5% YES from 14% yesterday.
Trading volume is thin: $1,216 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. Order book depth is shallow enough that relatively small sums can move prices. The largest price move was a 2-point spike on the April 30 contract, which didn’t hold.
At 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if a peace deal is reached by April 30, a 100x return. Iravani’s statement, conditioning Gulf security on guarantees Iran has never received, makes that outcome hard to imagine within the timeframe.
Watch for further statements from Iranian and US officials, particularly around mediator involvement or new diplomatic channels. With this little liquidity, even modest news could move prices sharply.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |