Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts Bitcoin will hit $125,000 by December due to liquidity from war spending and U.S. banking deregulation. Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end is at 4.8% YES on Polymarket.
## Market reaction
Hayes made the comments at Bitcoin Vegas 2026, but the Bitcoin price prediction for December 2026 hasn’t moved. The market sits at 4.8% YES, unchanged from last week. Hayes’ thesis about war-driven liquidity fits a broader narrative some traders share, but the odds suggest most aren’t buying it, likely because the claim is speculative and Hayes has a history of aggressive calls.
## Why it matters
Trading volume on this market is thin. Daily volume is $505 in USDC, and a $1,589 order can move the price by five percentage points. This is a market where a handful of large trades could shift the odds meaningfully. No notable price movement followed Hayes’ statement.
## What to watch
For traders, Hayes’ prediction alone doesn’t justify repositioning. At 4.8% YES, a YES share costs 4.8¢ and pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches $200,000, a 20.8x return. That payout requires believing in catalysts well beyond what Hayes described.
Watch for major institutional announcements, Federal Reserve rate decisions, and any U.S.-Iran conflict developments. Mike Novogratz and Jerome Powell’s next moves could provide more concrete signals for where Bitcoin heads from here.
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