Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly fired on passing ships. The Polymarket contract for the S&P 500 opening higher on April 16 sits at 100¢ YES.
Market reaction
The re-closure follows a brief rally driven by ceasefire hopes, during which the S&P 500 made a historic rebound. The Strait handles 20% of global oil flow, and its closure is likely to weigh on investor confidence. The April 16 market prices the index opening higher at 100% YES, though rising tensions may shift sentiment.
Why it matters
The market is thin with no actual trading volume, meaning any new development could cause rapid price swings. The re-escalation has already produced a 25% expected decrease in investor confidence for the S&P 500. Iran’s move signals a potential shift away from diplomatic resolution, with the ceasefire window closing in four days.
What to watch
At 100% YES, buying YES at 100¢ offers no upside, but hawkish developments could create opportunities for short positions. Watch for statements from Jerome Powell and Lynn Martin, along with any shifts in Federal Reserve policy. Upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments will shape the direction of this contract.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Spx Up Or Down On April 14 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
Gloria API — Get prediction market signals delivered to your trading stack.
Join the Waitlist