Iran ridiculed EU diplomat Kaja Kallas’ calls to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, signaling defiance amid US-Iran tensions. Trump’s Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 sits at 78% YES, down from 90% a day ago.
Iran’s mockery and gunboat activity have narrowed the odds in the Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market. The May 31 market, now at 78%, dropped 5 points on $9,914 in USDC trading volume. The April 19 sub-market fell sharply to 5.6% YES, meaning traders expect no resolution in the next 24 hours.
The UK warship market is flat at 8.5% YES, with traders pricing in almost no chance of immediate military intervention. Volume at $1,412 and a $304 depth to move 5 points make this market prone to sharp swings on any sudden news.
Iran’s posture points to a stalemate, not a breakthrough. The blockage may persist, straining global logistics. A YES share in the May 31 market at 78¢ doesn’t offer much upside unless diplomatic channels open decisively.
Watch for Trump’s next moves or a shift in EU or NATO posture. Statements from General Dan Caine or a Trump Truth Social post could move these markets fast.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 78.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 5.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
