Iran’s Defense Ministry Spokesman reiterated Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
The statement signals no imminent resolution to the blockade, keeping odds low for a return to normal shipping traffic. The May 15 market has dropped as traders grow more skeptical about near-term de-escalation. With 21 days to the resolution date, the market is thin: $4,658 moves the price 5 points.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.1% YES. The short timeframe until April 30 limits the impact of Iran’s latest statement on this market, even given the potential for supply disruptions through Hormuz.
A YES share at 15.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.5x return. For this bet to pay off, traders would need to see credible de-escalation signs, such as US-Iran peace talks resuming or significant US naval operations clearing the strait.
Watch for CENTCOM updates or Iranian diplomatic moves. Any shift in operational language from the US or a new diplomatic initiative could move these odds quickly.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Strait Of Hormuz Traffic Returns To Normal May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 16.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
