## Market Snapshot
The market for “Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?” is currently priced at 32.5% YES, down from 40% a day ago and 52% a week ago. The market shows a significant decrease in the likelihood of the blockade being lifted by the end of May.
## Key Takeaways
– Current pricing suggests participants view the continuing deadlock as consistent with a NO outcome for the lifting of the Hormuz blockade by May 31. – The sustained U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s defensive actions appear supportive of a scenario where the blockade remains in place. – The War Powers Resolution deadline adds pressure but does not indicate an immediate policy shift, as evidenced by the market’s pricing.
## Article Body
The ongoing deadlock in the Strait of Hormuz continues as U.S. President Donald Trump faces a critical deadline under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. Despite a ceasefire extension in early April, the U.S. maintains a naval blockade outside the Strait as part of Operation Epic Fury, while Iran has set up significant defenses, including mine-laying and imposing high transit fees. The Trump administration has claimed the ceasefire reset the War Powers clock, a point contested by legal experts. Meanwhile, Iran’s peace proposal was rejected by the U.S., which is forming a coalition with allies to enforce sanctions and freedom of navigation. The protracted situation impacts approximately 15 million barrels of oil daily, highlighting the strategic importance of the Strait.
## Market Interpretation
The market interpretation suggests that the news about the continued deadlock and the U.S. naval blockade is consistent with a NO outcome, indicating that market participants see little likelihood of the blockade being lifted by the end of May. The impact of this development is considered high, reflecting a substantial shift in expectations as the deadline approaches without resolution.
## What to Watch
Watch for any official announcements from the Trump administration regarding the War Powers Resolution, as well as any changes in Iran’s defensive strategies in the Strait of Hormuz. Key developments could include statements from CENTCOM or diplomatic movements, particularly around the Islamabad Talks, which may influence market perceptions. Additionally, observe the responses from international allies involved in the Maritime Freedom Construct coalition, as they could play a pivotal role in future negotiations.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 32.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 10.5% | — | — | View market → |
