## Market Snapshot
The “Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?” market currently prices a 4.5% chance of a rate cut, a slight increase from 4% 24 hours ago. The “Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?” market shows a 28% likelihood, down from 29% a day prior.
## Key Takeaways
– Goolsbee’s remarks on inflation appear to decrease the likelihood of a rate cut by June 2026. – Rising geopolitical tensions and oil prices suggest ongoing inflationary pressures. – Markets reflect a reduced probability of multiple rate cuts occurring in 2026.
## Article Body
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has described the latest inflation data as “bad news,” cautioning against hasty rate cuts. This comes as headline PCE inflation reached 3.5% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023, with core inflation at 3.2%. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil flows, exacerbating energy prices. Consequently, Brent crude has surged past $100 per barrel, intensifying inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve has maintained its current rates amid this uncertainty, with no cuts priced in for the year.
## Market Interpretation
Market participants appear to interpret Goolsbee’s comments and the inflation data as supportive of scenarios where the Federal Reserve maintains its current rate levels. The impact on the market for a rate cut by June 2026 is high, reflecting a diminished expectation of imminent easing. The September 2026 market also shows decreased odds, consistent with the view that persistent inflation and geopolitical risks are deterring rate cuts.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve statements and speeches, particularly those from Chair Jerome Powell, for any shifts in policy tone. Any developments in the US-Iran conflict that impact oil prices will be crucial, as they could alter inflation dynamics and Fed policy considerations. Additionally, April’s CPI and employment reports will provide further indicators of economic conditions influencing the Fed’s decisions.
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Fed Rate Cut 629| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 4.5% | — | — | View market → |
| September 2026 | 28% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2 | 99.9% | — | — | View market → |
