Eric Swalwell has retained a private investigator while facing mounting sexual misconduct allegations. The market for Swalwell’s resignation by May 31 is at 100% YES.
Swalwell’s decision to hire a private investigator comes as the Manhattan DA investigates claims against him and over 50 ex-aides demand his resignation. The market prices his departure by May 31 at full certainty. Check the market here.
The market already sits at 100%, but Swalwell’s actions suggest the pressure is still intensifying. His campaign for California governor is paused. The House Ethics Committee has an open probe. At these odds, traders are treating his departure as a settled outcome.
The Epstein client list market is unaffected by Swalwell’s legal issues. It sits at 8.3% YES for a release by June 30. Face value trading volume is $1,190 per day, but only $65 in actual USDC traded, indicating low conviction among traders.
A 100% YES market leaves little actionable opportunity for traders. Any reversal would require something like a court ruling or Ethics Committee clearance. This report originates from a tier-3 source.
Watch for statements from Swalwell, the House Ethics Committee, or legal developments from the Manhattan DA’s office that could inject new volatility into the market.
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Eric Swalwell Out As Us Rep May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.3% | — | — | Trade → |
