The DOJ has dropped its investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing a major hurdle for Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as his successor. Warsh’s confirmation by May 15 sits at 92% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.
The May 15 contract spiked 20 points on the news, and the June 30 odds are at 98.4% YES. The term structure tells a clear story: an 89-point gap between May 1 and May 15 contracts means traders expect confirmation to wrap up in the first half of May, well before Powell’s term ends.
Trade volume backs the move. The May 15 market has $17,756 in actual USDC traded, with $1,590 needed to shift odds by 5 percentage points. That depth suggests real institutional money behind the position. The May 1 contract, meanwhile, sits at just 2.9% YES, meaning almost no one expects the Senate to move that fast.
The DOJ investigation was the main political obstacle to Warsh’s confirmation. With it gone, the path through the Senate is considerably clearer. At 92¢, a YES share for May 15 pays 1.09x, leaving little room for disruption unless new information surfaces.
Watch for statements from the Senate Banking Committee and any endorsements or opposition from key senators. These will determine whether the confirmation timeline holds or slips past the May 15 date the market is now pricing in.
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Kevin Warsh Confirmed As Fed Chair May 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 15 | 92.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 98.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
