Crypto investment funds took in $1.2 billion last week, the fourth consecutive week of positive inflows. Bitcoin accounted for $933 million of that total, pushing assets under management to $155 billion, the highest level since February. On Polymarket, the chance of Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30 sits at 2.9% YES.
Market reaction
The Bitcoin price predictions for April 2026 price the chance of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by end of April at 3% YES, suggesting traders expect prices to hold well above that level. The June 30 new all-time-high contract has slipped from 3% a day ago to 2.9% YES. The September 30 market carries higher odds at 10.5% YES, pricing in a longer runway for a breakout. The largest single move was a 2-point spike at 3:34 PM.
Why it matters
Combined face value volume is $8,027, with $917 in actual USDC traded. Moving the June 30 contract by 5 percentage points costs $959, which means liquidity is thin enough that a few motivated traders could shift prices meaningfully. Four straight weeks of institutional inflows at this scale are a bullish signal for Bitcoin, though the prediction markets clearly treat a new all-time high before mid-year as a long shot.
What to watch
At 2.9%, a YES share on the June 30 contract pays $1, a potential 34.5x return. For that bet to make sense, traders would need to see continued Bitcoin ETF inflows alongside positive macro signals like Federal Reserve rate cuts or major corporate adoption announcements. FOMC communications on rate policy could shift sentiment quickly. Geopolitical developments, particularly any changes in the US-Iran ceasefire status, could also move Bitcoin prices and these contracts with them.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
