Deutsche Börse’s investment in Kraken and a UK firm tokenizing a £50B fund drew cheers, yet Bitcoin faces headwinds from miner and Bhutan selling. Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 18 is at 99.9% YES.
## Market reaction
Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 16 sits at 99.9% YES. The broader Bitcoin price in April market shows increased probability for a dip to $60,000, with bearish sentiment building around the miner and Bhutan sell-offs.
## Why it matters
Market liquidity is thick. Daily USDC volume in the April 18 market is $89,134, and order book depth sits at $89K to move prices 5 percentage points. Bearish sentiment is growing, but the market can absorb large trades without sharp price swings.
The institutional buying is real, but so is the supply pressure from miners and Bhutan. Traders need to decide whether institutional demand can absorb the increased supply. At 22¢, a YES share in the April dip market pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $60,000, a 4.5x return. That bet requires expecting continued downward pressure.
## What to watch
Exchange net flow data will matter here: sustained outflows signal accumulation, while inflows suggest more selling ahead. The Federal Reserve’s next moves on credit conditions will also affect whether Bitcoin can hold up against the current selling wave.
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Bitcoin Above On April 18| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
