DeFi United has announced a recovery plan for rsETH following a $292 million exploit of Kelp DAO by North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The market for another $100 million+ crypto hack by December 31 sits at 100.0% YES.
## Market reaction
The Kelp DAO hack is the largest DeFi exploit of 2026 and fits a pattern of North Korean cyber operations funding under international sanctions. The exploit triggered a large outflow from Aave and created liquidity stress across interconnected lending protocols. The hack market moved to 100.0% YES, with 251 days left until resolution. This market is effectively closed to new risk; traders see no challenge to its resolution status.
## Why it matters
Trading volume in this market is now zero, as odds have hit a ceiling. The lack of recent volume reflects trader consensus that the threshold has been met, leaving no room for speculation or price movement. The previous largest price move in related markets, a 5-point spike on April 30, suggests new developments could still prompt shifts in other markets that remain open.
## What to watch
At 100¢, a YES share pays $1, offering certainty rather than opportunity. Future price moves in the hack market depend on any new incidents or successful recovery efforts by DeFi United and its partners.
Watch the Arbitrum Security Council’s decisions on the frozen attacker assets and KelpDAO’s progress in restoring redemptions. Both could affect open markets tied to DeFi security and recovery timelines in the coming months.
## API access
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Predictfun Fdv Above One Day After Launch| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One day after launch | 96% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
