CENTCOM ordered 31 vessels to turn back as part of a blockade against Iran, and the market for US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 now sits at 6.5% YES, up from 6% yesterday. The move impacts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with the market for 10 ships transiting by April 12 now in question.
Market reaction
Most of the turned-back vessels were oil tankers, pointing to direct disruption of maritime traffic. Traders are pricing in a slightly higher chance of US Navy escort operations given the increased tensions. The market for Kharg Island control by April 30 remains at 4.8% YES, unchanged. The lack of movement there suggests traders see the blockade affecting shipping routes, not territorial control.
Why it matters
The blockade action is part of Operation Epic Fury’s effort to isolate Iran economically. No significant volume has traded on the Strait of Hormuz market, leaving open the question of whether traders believe the blockade will hold. The US escort market sees $1,581 in daily USDC volume, but only $1,031 is needed to move it 5 points, making it sensitive to large orders.
What to watch
At 6.5¢, a YES share on US escorts pays $1 if resolved, a 15x return. Traders betting on escalation need to believe the blockade will provoke a US escort mission within a week. Official statements from CENTCOM or the Pentagon could signal the next phase of maritime operations. A confirmed US escort would move market odds sharply.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
