CENTCOM confirms a full maritime blockade of Iranian ports, with 23 vessels turned around. The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 65.5% YES, down from 60% yesterday.
UK warships transiting the Strait by April 30 is priced at 7.5% YES, suggesting traders see little chance of near-term UK military involvement. The April 30 sub-market is thin, with just $2,086 in daily USDC trading, and it takes $427 to move the odds by 5 points.
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market shows a sharper reaction. Odds have slid from 60% to 50.5% in a day, with traders pricing in prolonged disruption. Daily trading volume is $10,250, and just $354 is required to shift the odds 5 points.
The 10-point drop in a single day on the normalization market signals that traders expect the blockade to persist past April 30. At 65.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if traffic normalizes, offering a 1.98x return. Taking that bet requires confidence in a diplomatic breakthrough within two weeks.
Watch for diplomatic activity from European or Gulf states that could signal movement toward resolution. Statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or NATO’s maritime command could move prices on both markets.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
