Bitcoin surged above $76,000 after Iran announced it would fully open the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket contract on Bitcoin price predictions for April now prices the chance of a dip to $60,000 at just 99.9% against.
Market reaction
Iran’s decision to open the strait, which handles a large share of global oil shipments, triggered a 10-11% drop in oil prices. Bitcoin and altcoins rallied on the news. As of April 15, the odds of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 had been at 20%, so the move to near-zero represents a sharp reversal. The term structure now shows consistent 100% odds across all sub-markets, with $390,585 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours.
Why it matters
The oil price collapse removed a major source of macro uncertainty that had been weighing on risk assets, including crypto. With supply fears in the oil market fading, traders have repriced Bitcoin’s downside risk to near zero for the remainder of April. A YES share in the Bitcoin price predictions in April market is priced at 99.9¢, offering almost no return, which tells you how settled this market is.
What to watch
Any reversal in Iran’s stance on the Strait or shifts in US diplomatic engagement with Tehran could reintroduce volatility. Changes in oil prices from here would be the most direct transmission mechanism back into crypto sentiment.
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Bitcoin Above On April 14| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
