Bitcoin holds below $81,000 with Trump-Xi talks on the horizon

Bitcoin held steady before President Donald Trump's with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

What to know:

• Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies are trading steadily ahead of President Donald Trump’s talks with China’s Xi Jinping, with gains concentrated in the largest tokens and implied volatility near year-to-date lows.
• Derivatives data show rising open interest and generally bullish positioning in altcoins like BNB, DOGE and ether, though negative short-term volume metrics for most tokens point to lingering caution beneath the surface.
• Confidence in decentralized finance is improving as the DeFi United initiative advances recovery from the Kelp DAO exploit, with key steps completed.

Bitcoin BTC$80,492.53, a leading indicator of risk sentiment, remains a paragon of stability ahead of President Donald Trump's arrival in Beijing for talks with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

The largest cryptocurrency recently traded 0.5% higher since midnight UTC at $80,900, in line with the gain of the CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5). All five members of the index advanced. The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) rose 1.3% while the CoinDesk 80 (CD80) was little changed, indicating a particular focus on the largest tokens.

The Trump-Xi talks are likely to cover tariffs, rare earth supply chains, and the Middle East. Any positive outcome, even a symbolic one on paper, could improve overall market sentiment and support risk assets

Ether (ETH) added 1.3% since midnight to $2,300 after the Ethereum Foundation published “Clear Signing,” a new standard designed to stop users from unknowingly approving malicious crypto transactions.

Among altcoins, Injective blockchain's INJ token surged as much as 24%, the most since Feb. 19, alongside 5% gains in Polkadot's DOT and the TRUMP memecoin.

Derivatives Positioning

• BNB futures open interest (OI) rose to 6.15 million tokens, up over 5% in 24 hours and the highest since April 3. The move points to fresh capital inflows.
• ZEC's OI growth is the biggest among the major cryptocurrencies. Its 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) is also positive and the highest among majors.
• That's also a sign of new money flowing into the market, with traders buying via market orders rather than passive limit orders, signaling strong bullish sentiment.
• Still, the BNB market doesn't look overheated. Funding rates remain below an annualized 10%, a sign of healthy bullish conditions without excessive leverage buildup. Its market capitalization has increased to $92.2 billion, the highest since March 18, reflecting renewed investor interest.
• OI in DOGE has increased 5.75% to 15.38 billion tokens, with its price chart pointing to a bullish crossover of the widely tracked 50- and 100-day simple moving averages. The token traded 4% higher at 11 cents as of writing. The other key metrics display a BNB-like bullish setup, suggesting improving speculative demand.
• Another standout is ether (ETH), the second-largest token by market value. OI in ether futures topped 15 million ETH, nearing last July's record 15.30 million.
• The increasing demand for leverage, coupled with the relentless tightening of Bollinger Bands, suggests scope for a volatility boom.
• OI in bitcoin has held largely unchanged near 740K BTC in the past 24 hours, indicating relatively stable positioning in bitcoin compared to altcoins.
• Broadly speaking, most tokens, except BNB, XRP and TRX, have negative 24-hour CVDs, meaning the altcoin market is dominated by sellers shorting via market orders rather than passive limit orders. That signals lingering caution beneath the broader market strength.
• While macro risks pile up in the form of high inflation and hardening bond yields across the advanced world, the market remains calm. That's evident from the continued decline in bitcoin's and ether's 30-day implied volatility indices. Ether's EVIV index hit fresh year-to-date lows below 55%, while BVIV remains pinned near 40%, levels last seen in late January.
• The subdued volatility environment suggests traders are not yet pricing in major near-term turbulence.
• In the options market on Deribit, higher-strike call options continue to dominate volume rankings. Calls represent a bullish bet on the underlying BTC.
• As for block flows, put spreads and straddles emerged as preferred strategies over the past 24 hours, indicating traders are positioning for both downside protection and a potential volatility expansion.

Token Talk

• The DeFi United initiative seems to be restoring confidence in decentralized finance ecosystem, with the tokens of Aave AAVE$98.06, Arbitrum (ARB) and Lido (LDO) recovering over the past week.
• AAVE rose 3%, ARB gained 16% and LDO added 11% over seven days. ARB's move stands out after the Kelp DAO exploit, which hit Arbitrum lending markets and left wrapped ether stranded across chains.
• The April 18 attack released unbacked rsETH through Kelp's LayerZero OFT bridge. Aave's incident report attributed the path to a forged LayerZero packet and a single-DVN configuration, while LayerZero linked the attack to North Korea's Lazarus Group. It sparked a widespread recovery effort.
• Phase 1 of that recovery is now complete. The attacker's rsETH on Arbitrum was burned, removing the unbacked supply, and Aave V3 positions tied to the exploiter were forcibly liquidated.
• The 117,132 rsETH, worth roughly $278 million, is set to be progressively refilled into the LayerZero bridge adapter over the next two weeks. Withdrawals are expected to resume within 24 hours of the first tranche.
• A separate legal process is ongoing for 30,765 ETH, roughly $71 million, frozen by Arbitrum's Security Council. A U.S. federal court cleared an Arbitrum governance vote to move the funds to an Aave-controlled wallet while keeping the recovered ETH under court restrictions.

More For You

BTC is fighting a technical battle as it trades just below two closely watched long-term trend indicators: the 200-day Simple Moving Average and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average.

What to know:

• Bitcoin is trading just below the 200-day SMA of $82,455 and the 200-day EMA at $82,027, forming a major resistance zone that could determine whether the long-term uptrend resumes.
• The 200 SMA and 200EMA form a confluence resistance zone around $82,000–$82,500 that bitcoin must convincingly reclaim to signal a recovery...

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BTCBTC$80,492.53◢0.32%

AAVEAAVE$98.06◢0.10%